Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

One would think that economists would by now have already developed a solid grip on how financial bubbles form and how to measure and compare them. This is not the case. Despite the thousands of articles in the professional literature and the millions of times that the word "bubble" has been used in the business press, there still does not appear to be a cohesive theory or persuasive empirical approach with which to study "bubble" and "crash" conditions. This book presents what is meant to be a plausible and accessible descriptive theory and empirical approach to the analysis of such financial market conditions. It advances such a framework through application of standard econometric methods to its central idea, which is that financial bubbles reflect urgent short side rationed demand. From this basic idea, an elasticity of variance concept is developed. The notion that easy credit provides fuel for bubbles is supported. It is further shown that a behavioral risk premium can probably be measured and related to the standard equity risk premium models in a way that is consistent with conventional theory.

Author: Harold L. Vogel
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 01/01/2010
Pages: 358
Binding Type: Hardcover
Weight: 1.49lbs
Size: 9.24h x 6.36w x 1.08d
ISBN: 9780521199674

About the Author
Vogel, Harold L.: - Harold L. Vogel was ranked as top entertainment industry analyst for ten years by Institutional Investor magazine and was the senior entertainment industry analyst at Merrill Lynch for seventeen years. A chartered financial analyst (C.F.A.), Mr Vogel served on the New York State Governor's Motion Picture and Television Advisory Board and as an adjunct professor of media economics at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business. He also taught a similar course in the University of Southern California's MFA (Peter Stark) film program. He frequently writes and speaks on investment topics related to entertainment and media, leisure, and travel and currently heads an independent investment and consulting firm in New York City. His venture capital activities are concentrated mostly in early-stage media and entertainment-related areas. Mr Vogel is the author of the seven editions of Entertainment Industry Economics and Travel Industry Economics, all published by Cambridge University Press.